Property developer, trainer and mentor Henry Davis recently joined Darryl Morris on Times Radio to discuss falling house prices, confidence in the UK property market and whether the current conditions could develop into a housing market crash.
With more than 34 years of experience as a property developer, Henry has worked through several property cycles and witnessed first-hand how changing interest rates, access to finance, taxation and government policy can affect both developers and buyers.
During the interview, Henry argued that the current pressure on the housing market goes beyond interest rates. He pointed to reduced access to capital, squeezed disposable incomes, uncertainty around future taxation and increasing regulation as factors affecting confidence across the market.
Is the UK property crash really on the cards?
While acknowledging that a property crash is always possible, Henry explained why he believes a sustained decline in UK house prices remains unlikely.
One of the key reasons is the continuing imbalance between housing supply and demand. The UK still needs more homes, but Henry argues that the growing regulatory and financial burden placed on small and medium-sized developers is making many projects increasingly difficult to deliver profitably.
As Henry explained during the interview:
“The demand is so strong, the supply is so low, because governments have made it almost impossible for small to medium-sized developers.”
Henry also challenged the idea that developers have an interest in restricting housing supply. Instead, he argued that developers actively want to build more homes, but planning constraints, regulation, taxation and increasingly difficult project economics are preventing the market from delivering the volume of new housing the country needs.
What needs to change?
For Henry, improving housing affordability cannot simply be about hoping property prices fall. The bigger challenge is creating a healthier and more balanced housing market where developers can build, housing supply can increase and property prices can grow at more sustainable levels.
His message to policymakers was particularly direct: the barriers preventing development need urgent attention, and practical changes could help unlock significantly more housing supply.
The conversation covers house prices, affordability, interest rates, taxation, development costs, housing supply and the possibility of a UK property market crash.
Read the full transcript of Henry Davis’s Times Radio interview below.
Full Transcript: Darryl Morris Interviews Henry Davis on Times Radio
August 2026
Darryl Morris, Times Radio:
Author of The Truth About Property. Henry, thanks for being with us. 2% doesn’t sound like a lot, but it is a significant drop in the context of the housing market.
What’s happened?
Henry Davis, Property Developer, Trainer and Mentor:
Yeah, well, Darryl, it’s confidence. Confidence. It’s all about confidence in the property world, and unfortunately there’s just so many things going against the property market.
The obvious one being interest rates, but it’s not just interest rates, it’s available capital. Banks tend to get a bit more cautious, and it’s also the future prospects because if people think that prices are going to fall in the future, then they become more cautious. So it’s like the perfect storm.
The other big thing, I think personally, that’s driving this is that Andy Berman is a good man. He’s well-intentioned. He wants to do the right thing for the people, but everything that he’s talking about doing is going to cost a lot of money. And I think people know deep down that tax increases are coming their way, and that’s probably the biggest thing that’s holding the market back.
Darryl Morris:
Any risk of a crash?
Henry Davis:
Well, I’ve been a property developer for 34 years. I’ve seen a few crashes, and I have unsuccessfully forecasted many crashes over the years that have never come.
So yes, it’s possible, and it’s all about confidence, as I said before. The other issue is disposable income.
People’s incomes haven’t really grown with inflation, and their ability to pay for, for example, the deposit required on a house, to furnish a new house, etc., or a second-hand house, has been reduced because their actual available disposable cash income hasn’t grown with inflation, unfortunately, over the last few years.
Darryl Morris:
Right, okay. Henry, I wonder if we could have an honest conversation here, right?
Henry Davis:
Go for it, Darryl. I’m all ears.
Darryl Morris:
Look, there’s a sort of general acceptance that we need more housing stock, right? And partly that’s so that there are more homes, but also partly because we need homes to be affordable for people.
Henry Davis:
Yes.
Darryl Morris:
Is this something that we’re just going to have to live with? Is a decline in the value of houses, for better or worse, for various different people, maybe just something we actually wouldn’t want to happen?
Henry Davis:
No, this isn’t really a decline yet because it’s just a blip, Darryl.
You talked about more houses being available. If any government minister happens to be listening now, and if they want a 20-minute phone call with me, I will show them how to fix the housing market.
It can be fixed in a very short time. For example, me as a developer, I’m effectively being legislated out of business because of all the rules and regulations. It’s making it almost impossible for me to make a profit on a typical small site that I would do.
And all my colleagues are in the same boat.
What I actually think has happened with our economy, Darryl, is that we’ve reached peak tax. In other words, citizens have been taxed to the maximum.
And also, we’ve reached peak legislation. Businesses have been basically taxed and legislated out of business. We’re peak everything.
Nobody has any money left because the government is unable to balance the books. And the only way the government will ever balance the books in the future is by cutting spending. And that is simply never going to happen in our system.
Darryl Morris:
But just to the point, Henry, which is: do we want houses to be cheaper? And therefore, if we do want houses to be cheaper for people to buy, then we’re going to have to deal with the housing market becoming less valuable.
Henry Davis:
Yeah, but you’re assuming that the housing market is going to keep falling, which, in all honesty, is highly unlikely because of the influx of people coming into this country, because of population growth. It’s just highly unlikely.
Even if there was a crash, it probably would be temporary as well. And I’m not just saying that because I’m invested in the property market.
The demand is so strong, the supply is so low, because governments have made it almost impossible for small to medium-sized developers.
And one of the biggest developers in London recently said that they are no longer buying new sites because they’re struggling to make the numbers work.
This is a major emergency, and governments should be having a crisis meeting today, tomorrow, to resolve this. They have announced some changes and some things that will help developers and will help supply, but it’s nowhere near enough.
Darryl Morris:
Okay, Henry, just extremely briefly, take this text from Edward. He says: “It’s obvious the political classes don’t build more houses because they are invested to the hilt in property. It’s just not in their interests.” So that’s what Edward said.
Henry Davis:
No, that’s complete and utter rubbish, right? Because there are endless developers and big housing developers that are desperate to build more houses, that are desperate to make money from the business by building new houses.
And even though nobody wants a housing crash, I think we need a balanced housing market where new houses are being built, where prices are not increasing so much as they were in the past.
Nobody has a vested interest like that.
Darryl Morris:
Okay, good to talk to you, Henry. Thank you so much. I might need to call Henry back and solve the housing crisis at some point.
Henry Davis:
I’m here anytime, Darryl. Come and speak to me. Any other ministers listening, please contact me. I can do it all in 20 minutes flat.
Darryl Morris:
Blimey. Okay, good. Efficient as well.
Henry, thank you. Appreciate it. Good man.
Henry Davis, the author of The Truth About Property.
